Monitoring and evaluation: National Committee on US, China Relations (NCUSCR), Covid-19 policies

 Drafted 31 July, 2020

National Committee on US, China Relations (NCUSCR) 

Zoom; 30 July, 2020

Hosted by Steve Orlins

Panel: Mark McClellan (Former FDA Commissioner); Gordon Lou; Julia Spencer (Global Policy on Vaccines, Merck; former Dept of Health official); George Gao (China CDC; Oxford; Harvard); Peggy Hamburg (FDA; National Academy of Medicine)

Agenda: Containment, non-therapeutic Behaviors, Government role in Screening and Testing; Therapeutics and Vaccinations (sales pitch); Q&A

Notes:

• McClellan and Gao, trial for experimented vaccine. Gao confirmed phase 3.

• Promotion of telemedicine 

• Promotion of “blockchain”

• Spencer advised the need to be ‘ready to deploy millions to billions of vaccines, and multiple doses’

• Spencer mentioned that Gao was the first to advocate for the wearing of masks

Controlling COVID-19 in China according to Lou

• Repeatedly reiterated the stringent nature of the Chinese government, acknowledging it as a “strong central government” (aka Totalitarian regime) allowing the ‘success’ of lockdowns, track and trace, application 

• Acknowledged the difference in culture based on differences of government role, as “stringent” in China (and India)

• Acknowledged Japan’s culture as one that is ‘self-compliant and ‘self-governing’

• Acknowledged that all covid patients were hospitalized, including 80% with “modest” conditions, rather than only hospitalising the 20% with severe conditions

• Acknowledged the neglect of patients suffering from other ailments and chronic illnesses due to the “immediate” response to treat COVID patients and COVID patients only

• Acknowledged that there were higher death rates due to cardiovascular diseases before being switched over to Steve Orlins in a very abrupt manner

China CDC Presentation by George Gao (see exhibits below)

• In terms of US-China relations, Gao presented a PowerPoint which asked the following questions: Friend or Enemy?; Globalization or Interdependency?; Science vs Politics; Individual vs Population (Collectivism); What is Public Health?

• Gao asked who will first be prioritized to be the vaccine? “Health care workers?”

Behavioral Note: It was during this time that a British accent continued to randomly surface with his strong Chinese accent.

Orlins asked Gao what the number of deaths in China without intervention.

Gao answered, “200,000 more.”

Hamburg’s argument: Why the US response has not been robust (social pressures and tensions)

• “impact of the borders”

• need for more coordinated activity in the implementation of the new normal

• need to identify those who have tested positive 

Hamburg did not further elaborate her arguments. 

Hamburg added her personal opinion to the subject matter:

• “unfortunately, because most people were wanting to go back to a normal life…”

• US “slow to respond”

• ‘..no consistency, no national plan…’

• ‘...delays in testing and diagnostics…’

• ‘...politics in decision-making within the science community…’

• ‘...virus can resurge; we need to work together…’

Notes

Hamburg’s analysis is biased against the Trump Administration. Statements that underestimate POTUS leadership and shift the blame directly on POTUS is a National Security issue considering the large number of Chinese listeners that may directly be affiliated with the CCP.

Her analysis was based on opinions, focusing on the negatives rather than the positively effective actions the US took. Furthermore, Hamburg failed to present any statistical data on her findings and based her argument on blanket statements.

Hamburg noted two important factors for further consideration:

• The role of asymptomatic spread

• The need to create a strategy for balance in taking care of patients and non-covid patients 

Question 1

Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo asked about ‘accountability, transparency, and reporting’ by the “CCP”.

Note:

Orlins interjected Secretary Pompeo’s question by adding that he’s from the Trump Administration and “not very popular.” He also frowned upon Pompeo’s use of “CCP.” Orlins reiterated “...recurring criticisms from the Trump Administration,” to which Gao subtly shook his head.

Gao responded:

“We push too hard…” and stated, “can you imagine… it’s too hard to pursue everyone to wear a mask…”

Gao did not answer Sec. Pompeo’s question.

Question 2

“What can we learn from China and what can China learn from America?”

This question was answered by McClellan who stated “individual liberties…”

‘I don’t think we will operate with the (level of) surveillance China is doing.

McClellan also stated the need to ‘ramp up the testing for faster screening,’ and

that we must ‘keep working to increase the rate (currently at 30%) of contact tracing.’

McClellan recommended to adopt ‘the sharing of information about... existing therapeutics.’

Gao acknowledged the concerns for ‘IP stealing’

Gao recommended that both countries ‘technological leaders create a world collaboration guidelines (transparent).’ Stated that the ‘US should come up with it as a leader.’

Gao stated that he ‘does not think “fingerprinting is constructive.”’

Gao stated that ‘a proposal should be made before vaccinations are made available.’ He did not elaborate on the premise for such a proposal.

Hamburg stated that ‘the US and Russia have not been committed to the WHO effort.’

Hamburg stated the need to “get vaccines to people in appropriate ways.”

Question 3: 

I asked: “How many large-scale qualitative and quantitative surveys have been conducted in the US to assess the public’s trust of vaccinations? Is this data available?

Orlins, rephrased the question and included his personal bias and stigmatized the public’s issue by stating, ‘what is the..what do you call.. “antivaxxers”..what is the percentage of these individuals?’

Spencer repeatedly claimed that ‘it is just a small number of people.’ Spencer showed no statistical data or empirical studies to assess the public’s demand for a vaccination. 

Spencer stated, ‘some people accept all vaccines. A small number refuse vaccines. Others have “vaccine hesitancy” because of lack of trust in their government and institutions, or think they can just get immunity.’

Gao added, ‘Chinese also has concerns about vaccinations.’

Hamburg added, ‘in the US, there is a very special set of issues…’ She went on to describe Operation Warp Speed as sounding “unnatural.” She also stated that government investments are “made at risk” ‘which adds to the concerns.’

Question 4

The question was regarding the use of mask due to potential aerosol transmission.

Gao stated, “No strong evidence COVID will be carried by aerosol...maybe...but not conclusive...it could be a droplet.”

Gao also stated that in China, Japan, and Korea “young ladies wear their masks.”

Brief Analysis 

It is evident that Orlins prioritizes his personal relationships with the Chinese and speaks in an attitude of ‘divorce’ from 45’s Presidency and the current administration. It appears that his role and position was to smooth out any discrepancies within the diplomatic ties of both countries. However, doing so comes at a cost as Orlins and Hamburg’s partisan politics appear to represent the state of the Union which is not the case and disqualifies any true efforts to restore the US’s position as a world leader since the POTUS is continuously undermined by government officials.

Gao appears to understand the sensitivity of the issues regarding Chinese culture and its strict government rule as the basis for disagreement whilst Orlins and Hamburg appear to embrace the totalitarian dictatorship and seem to call for a more unified effort from Americans to more closely resemble Chinese behaviors.

In conclusion, we found that no studies have been conducted regarding the public’s sentiment towards a covid-19 vaccine, the public’s trust regarding the companies involved in vaccination production, nor the statistical data on the demands based in various demographics including individuals of all age, race/ethnicities, income levels, ability/disability, and political affiliations.

Recommendations 

• Monitorization of McClellan and Gao’s health results post trial

• Assessment of physical health and well being along with any changes since taking the experimental vaccination

• Transparency from vaccination production companies; to provide a list of ingredients found in all current trial vaccines for assessment

• NCUSCR to hold a forum on AI/5G/US-China Partnerships as requested

• Clear answer for Secretary Pompeo is necessary 

• Qualitative and quantitative research on vaccination demand is necessary prior to any distribution to the public

Questions 

• Who from Operation Warp Speed was appointed office by President Bush Sr., President Clinton, President Bush (son), and President Obama? How many individuals participating in Operation Warp Speed were appointed to office by President Trump? Who?

• Who are ‘Accelerationists’ and how do their goals compare to and contribute to Operation Warp Speed?

• How does producing a vaccine at “warp speed” assist countries, particularly the US, who has not conducted mass research for demand? How does it put them at risk?

• Who benefits from delivering a vaccination? How? 

• What are the ties between Operation Warp Speed task force members and the vaccination production companies in terms of shareholdings and previous employment?

• What are the ties between American vaccination production companies and Chinese vaccination production companies? 

• Who are common funders for vaccination production companies stationed in both countries?

• What is the underlying purpose of the government and its institutions [in this case, the UN/WHO and IHR board] to demand Americans to adopt Chinese behaviors as enforced by the PRC (CCP) such as mask wearing, inability to question government and institutions [accept for the Trump Administration who has been very cooperative], and full civil obedience and compliance of ordinances, etc?

• What are the stakes for Orlins?

• What was the total number of viewers in attendance of the Zoom meeting? What percentage was Chinese? American?